# Figures Waltham Forest Council and its partners have published in committee
# papers. Each observation cites a document in sources.yaml and a page number.
# Values are copied as printed. Where a label in the source is ambiguous it is
# kept verbatim and explained in `note`.
#
# target: the numeric target the council has published for this measure, or
# null where the plan sets a measure and baseline but no target.

measures:

  timeliness_20_weeks:
    title: New EHC plans issued within 20 weeks (council monitoring)
    unit: percent
    plan_ref: Improvement plan measure 3b
    statutory: All plans must be issued within 20 weeks of the request, unless a legal exception applies.
    statutory_source: { source: send_regs_2014, page: "Regulation 13" }
    target: null
    target_note: The improvement plan records a baseline but sets no target or trajectory. It relies on a recovery plan to clear backlogs "by end of 2025".
    target_source: { source: hwb_oct2025_report, page: 4 }
    observations:
      - { period: "Q4 2025", value: 33.81, n: 47, source: laip_2025, page: 15, note: "Labelled 'Q4 2025' in a plan published in April 2025, so probably January to March 2025 (financial-year quarter 4 of 2024/25)." }
      - { period: "March 2025", value: 31.91, n: 15, source: laip_2025, page: 15 }
      - { period: "June 2025", value: 30.58, source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 15 }
      - { period: "August 2025", value: 28, n: 96, source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 15, note: "The council blames delays in educational psychologist advice." }
      - { period: "2025 to date (plan dated 1 Sept 2025)", value: 31, source: sufficiency_plan_2025, page: 58, note: "'The EHCP 20-week statutory timelines have significantly dropped over the years from 90% previously to 50% in 2024 and 31% to-date.' The same plan also says 58% of the 375 new plans issued in 2025 to date went over 20 weeks (page 22). The two figures do not agree." }
      - { period: "July 2026 report", value: 12, source: sf_jul2026, page: 178, note: "'Timeliness in statutory processes remains 12% within 20 weeks.' From the summary of the SEND Reform Plan submitted to the DfE in June 2026. The report does not say what period the figure covers." }

  annual_reviews_on_time:
    title: Annual reviews completed on time (council monitoring)
    unit: percent
    plan_ref: Improvement plan measure 3c
    statutory: Every EHC plan must be reviewed at least once every 12 months, and the council must give its decision within 4 weeks of the review meeting.
    statutory_source: { source: cfa_2014_s44, page: "Section 44(1); SEND Regulations 2014 reg. 20" }
    target: null
    target_note: No target is set. The council says it is clearing the backlog with temporary staff.
    observations:
      - { period: "Q4 2025", value: 10, n: 23, source: laip_2025, page: 15, note: "Labelled 'Q4 2025' in a plan published in April 2025." }
      - { period: "March 2025", value: 20, n: 12, source: laip_2025, page: 15 }
      - { period: "June 2025", value: 24.18, source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 15 }
      - { period: "August 2025", value: 40.83, n: 1354, source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 15, note: "The same report also gives '58%, N=1941' as a figure 'to date' without saying what period that covers." }

  year9_reviews:
    title: Year 9 annual reviews (preparing for adulthood) completed on time
    unit: percent
    plan_ref: Improvement plan measure 5.01
    statutory: From Year 9, every annual review must cover preparation for adulthood.
    target: null
    target_note: No target is set.
    observations:
      - { period: "March 2025", value: 14, n: 33, source: laip_2025, page: 20, note: "193 Year 9 reviews were late." }
      - { period: "August 2025", value: 12, n: 5, source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 17, note: "156 Year 9 reviews overdue, down from 202 in July 2025." }

  year9_overdue:
    title: Year 9 annual reviews overdue
    unit: count
    lower_is_better: true
    target: null
    observations:
      - { period: "March 2025", value: 193, source: laip_2025, page: 20 }
      - { period: "July 2025", value: 202, source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 17 }
      - { period: "August 2025", value: 156, source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 17 }

  complaints:
    title: SEND complaints received per month
    unit: count
    lower_is_better: true
    plan_ref: Improvement plan measure 2.08 ("Fewer complaints received")
    target: null
    observations:
      - { period: "March 2025", value: 60, source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 14 }
      - { period: "July 2025", value: 40, source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 14 }
      - { period: "August 2025", value: 25, source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 14 }

  ehcp_audit_quality:
    title: EHC plans graded "good" in quality audits
    unit: percent
    plan_ref: Improvement plan measure 3a
    target: null
    target_note: No audits were done between December 2024 and August 2025. There is no benchmark for annual reviews.
    observations:
      - { period: "December 2024", value: 82.3, source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 15, note: "The improvement plan dates this baseline 'December 2025'. The later highlight report says December 2024." }

backlogs:
  - { label: "Active EHC plans, council estimate after its annual review backlog is cleared (3,663 reported to DfE in January 2025)", value: 3354, period: "September 2025", source: sufficiency_plan_2025, page: 20, note: "The council expects 'a significant number of EHC plans are likely to be ceased' once overdue annual reviews are done." }
  - { label: "Increase in EHC plans between March and August 2026", value: "201 (5%)", period: "August 2026", source: sf_oct2026, page: 29 }
  - { label: "EHC needs assessments outstanding", value: 230, period: "November 2024", source: hwb_oct2025_report, page: 2 }
  - { label: "Annual reviews outstanding", value: 1637, period: "November 2024", source: hwb_oct2025_report, page: 2 }
  - { label: "Share of SEND education placements outside the borough", value: "17%", period: "November 2024", source: hwb_oct2025_report, page: 2 }
  - { label: "Children placed out of borough this year (28 the year before)", value: 5, period: "October 2025", source: hwb_oct2025_report, page: 3 }
  - { label: "Permanent staff in the SEND establishment", value: "70%", period: "October 2025", source: hwb_oct2025_report, page: 3 }
  - { label: "Health advice for assessments returned within 6 weeks", value: "65-90%", period: "October 2025", source: hwb_oct2025_report, page: 4, note: "The statutory deadline for health advice is 6 weeks (SEND Regulations 2014, reg. 8)." }

# From the SEND Sufficiency Plan, based on the council's Capita records for
# January 2025 to around September 2025.
assessments_2025_capita:
  source: sufficiency_plan_2025
  period: January to about September 2025
  rows:
    - { label: "Requests for assessment reviewed", value: "349", page: 24 }
    - { label: "Requests decided within the legal 6 weeks", value: "91%", page: 24 }
    - { label: "Requests where the council agreed to assess", value: "91%", page: 24 }
    - { label: "Requests refused", value: "0%", page: 24 }
    - { label: "Assessments completed", value: "295", page: 24 }
    - { label: "Assessments completed within 16 weeks (the deadline to decide whether to issue a plan)", value: "54%", page: 24 }
    - { label: "Assessments with no decision recorded", value: "26%", page: 25, note: "The plan says this 'needs further investigation to determine why such a high proportion of decisions are not being recorded'." }
    - { label: "New EHC plans issued", value: "375", page: 22 }

tribunal_appeals:
  title: SEND Tribunal appeals against Waltham Forest (council's own count)
  source: sufficiency_plan_2025
  page: 27
  columns: ["2020", "2021", "2022", "2023", "2024"]
  rows:
    - { label: "Appeals", values: [18, 16, 36, 34, 63] }
  note: "In 2024, 27% of appeals were about refusals to assess, 25% about the school or type of placement and 21% about plan contents. Mediation referrals rose from 77 in 2022-23 to 145 in 2023-24 (page 26). The council's legal costs for tribunal cases were £48,860 in 2024, up from £26,197 in 2023, excluding counsel fees."

sufficiency_findings:
  source: sufficiency_plan_2025
  items:
    - { text: "Special schools in Waltham Forest are full (822 pupils). 116 of those places (14%) are taken by children from other boroughs.", page: 58 }
    - { text: "12% of children and young people with EHC plans are placed outside the borough. 2.8% are on home tuition packages, 'mainly because of insufficient specialist provision to meet needs'.", page: 28 }
    - { text: "5.1% of young people with EHC plans are post-16 and not in education, employment or training (no provision).", page: 28 }
    - { text: "Out-of-borough independent and special school placements cost about £60,000 a year on average.", page: 59 }
    - { text: "Without changes, EHC plans are forecast to grow by a further 78-80% by 2030.", page: 21 }

data_quality_warning:
  text: >-
    The council told the Health and Wellbeing Board in October 2025 that
    "performance data may be providing a worst-case scenario as data analytics
    from our Capita system is inaccurate."
  source: hwb_oct2025_report
  page: 5

health_waits:
  title: Children waiting for specialist health services
  source: hwb_oct2025_highlight
  page: 18
  columns: ["March 2025 baseline", "July 2025", "August 2025"]
  rows:
    - { label: "Occupational therapy: children waiting over 52 weeks", values: [33, 42, 37] }
    - { label: "Speech and language therapy: children waiting over 52 weeks", values: [1, 0, 0] }
    - { label: "CAMHS neurodevelopmental pathway: average wait once on pathway (weeks)", values: [48, 46, 39] }
    - { label: "Under-5s autism assessment (SACC): children waiting over 52 weeks", values: [25, 31, 28] }
    - { label: "Continence service: children waiting over 52 weeks", values: [4, 25, 13] }

local_exclusions:
  title: Exclusions and suspensions of pupils with SEND (council's own figures)
  source: hwb_oct2025_highlight
  page: 16
  note: These are the council's own monitoring figures and may not match the DfE statistics above.
  columns: ["2023/24", "2024/25"]
  rows:
    - { label: "Permanent exclusions (all pupils)", values: [110, 43] }
    - { label: "of which pupils with an EHC plan", values: [20, 10] }
    - { label: "of which pupils on SEN support", values: [31, 14] }
    - { label: "Suspensions (all pupils)", values: [1951, 1987] }
    - { label: "of which pupils with an EHC plan", values: [199, 378] }
    - { label: "of which pupils on SEN support", values: [557, 715] }

local_attendance:
  title: School attendance (council's own figures)
  source: hwb_oct2025_highlight
  page: 16
  columns: ["2023/24", "2024/25"]
  rows:
    - { label: "Pupils with an EHC plan", values: ["89.3%", "89.44%"] }
    - { label: "Pupils on SEN support", values: ["92.1%", "91.8%"] }
    - { label: "Pupils with no SEN", values: ["94.4%", "n/a"] }
    - { label: "All pupils", values: ["93.7%", "93.8%"] }

improvement_plan_status:
  period: September 2025
  source: hwb_oct2025_highlight
  page: 2
  total: 46
  counts:
    - { label: Completed, value: 6 }
    - { label: On track, value: 29 }
    - { label: At risk of delay, value: 8 }
    - { label: Delayed or significant risks, value: 3 }
    - { label: Not started, value: 0 }

# Dated, numeric commitments in the improvement plan, and the latest published
# position. `status` is our reading of the latest figure, not the council's RAG.
targets:
  - commitment: SEND Reform Plan - cut projected annual growth in EHC plans from 11.3% to 9.8% from 2027/28, and raise the share of children on SEN support from 12.5% to 14%
    due: From 2027/28
    source: { source: sf_jul2026, page: 178 }
    latest: Plan accepted by the DfE on 2 October 2026. EHC plans grew by 201 (5%) between March and August 2026. The plan's other priority goals (attainment, exclusions and attendance, parental confidence, statutory timeliness) have no published numbers.
    latest_source: { source: sf_oct2026, page: 29 }
    status: no data
  - commitment: Locality-based model to cut the rate of growth in EHC plans by 10% a year
    due: Not stated
    source: { source: sf_dec2024, page: 22 }
    latest: No progress figure published. Plans grew 11.2% in the year to January 2025 and 7.7% to January 2026 (DfE).
    status: no data
  - commitment: Clear the backlog of EHC needs assessments and annual reviews
    due: End of 2025
    source: { source: hwb_oct2025_report, page: 4 }
    latest: In October 2025 the council said the "historic backlog for EHCPs has been cleared". In July 2026 it reported timeliness "remains 12% within 20 weeks".
    latest_source: { source: sf_jul2026, page: 178 }
    status: behind
  - commitment: Health visitor development checks at or above the London average
    due: April 2026
    source: { source: laip_2025, page: 10 }
    latest: 94% of 2-year-olds reviewed by 2.5 years in July 2025, against a London average of 65.4%.
    latest_source: { source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 12 }
    status: met
  - commitment: Short breaks taken up by 10% more children than the 783 currently using them
    due: September 2026
    source: { source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 4 }
    latest: 864 children on 19 September 2025 (target about 861).
    latest_source: { source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 12 }
    status: met
  - commitment: 90% of new EHC plans and annual reviews include documented input from children, young people and families
    due: January 2026
    source: { source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 6 }
    latest: No baseline yet. It will be set from Invision360 audits.
    latest_source: { source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 14 }
    status: no data
  - commitment: 90% of EHCP-related data available within 5 working days of a request
    due: December 2025
    source: { source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 4 }
    latest: No progress figure published.
    status: no data
  - commitment: 100% of SEND staff in all settings complete at least one accredited training module a year
    due: June 2026
    source: { source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 4 }
    latest: Training attendance has been published (2,393 attendees in 2024), but not as a percentage of staff.
    latest_source: { source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 12 }
    status: no data
  - commitment: Publish a graduated response framework, with 100% of schools trained on it
    due: September 2026
    source: { source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 5 }
    latest: Due to go to the SENCO forum "next academic year".
    status: no data
  - commitment: VERBO speech and language programme in 25% of schools by December 2025 and 90% by July 2026
    due: December 2025 and July 2026
    source: { source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 11 }
    latest: 0 schools in August 2025, with 5 schools lined up as early adopters. Delayed by NHS contract signing.
    latest_source: { source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 18 }
    status: behind
  - commitment: 50 children use Spectrum Gaming in its first year
    due: First year
    source: { source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 18 }
    latest: 0 referrals by August 2025.
    latest_source: { source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 18 }
    status: behind
  - commitment: Bring CAMHS waits down from an average of 48 weeks and end waits of more than 52 weeks
    due: Not stated
    source: { source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 18 }
    latest: 39 weeks once on the pathway in August 2025.
    latest_source: { source: hwb_oct2025_highlight, page: 18 }
    status: improving

finance:
  - id: dsg_deficit
    label: Cumulative DSG deficit at 31 March 2026 (outturn)
    value: "£14.32m"
    detail: Up £8.94m in the year. The High Needs Block deficit alone is £19.79m, partly offset by surpluses in the other blocks. (The February 2026 budget had forecast £14.8m.)
    source: sf_jul2026
    page: 10
  - id: hnb_outturn_2526
    label: High Needs overspend 2025/26
    value: "£10.91m"
    detail: Against a planned overspend of £5.76m. The council says this includes a one-off reconciliation of historic payments to schools, as well as growth in EHC plans and alternative provision.
    source: sf_jul2026
    page: 11
  - id: hnb_forecast_2627
    label: Forecast High Needs overspend 2026/27 (at July 2026)
    value: "£13.68m"
    detail: Up £2.63m since the previous forecast, "due to the increasing number of Education & Health Care Plans (EHCP's) in mainstream settings". In March 2026 the budget assumed £10.34m.
    source: sf_oct2026
    page: 29
  - id: stability_grant
    label: High Needs Stability Grant
    value: "£12.89m"
    detail: Confirmed on 2 October 2026 after the DfE accepted the council's SEND Reform Plan. With the grant, the DSG deficit is forecast at £15.12m on 31 March 2027.
    source: sf_oct2026
    page: "30 and 31"
  - id: hnb_allocation
    label: High Needs Block allocation 2026/27 (gross)
    value: "£65.80m"
    detail: Up from £62.38m in 2025/26. The council says this is "solely due to the rolling-in of existing grants", so funding has not risen in real terms.
    source: schools_budget_mar2026
    page: "2 and 8"
  - id: hnb_outturn_2425
    label: High Needs overspend 2024/25
    value: "£3.82m"
    detail: On a £58.5m budget, "mainly due to significant increases in spend across specialist settings, the highest being in INMSS" (independent and non-maintained special schools). SEND transport cost a further £5.25m.
    source: sufficiency_plan_2025
    page: 58
  - id: first_deficit
    label: When the DSG first went into deficit
    value: "March 2021"
    detail: £942,000 net deficit, driven by the High Needs Block.
    source: schools_budget_mar2026
    page: 7
  - id: intervention
    label: DfE intervention programme
    value: "None"
    detail: As of February 2026 the council was not in a DfE intervention programme (Safety Valve or Delivering Better Value). DfE officers were keeping its position under review.
    source: budget_feb2026
    page: 33
  - id: mitigations
    label: Main ways the council plans to bring spending down
    value: "Draft deficit management plan"
    detail: '"reducing the number of requests to assess children whose needs can be met outside the statutory framework; more cost-effective provision being commissioned locally and closer financial management; and improving the workforce capacity."'
    source: budget_feb2026
    page: 34